Key points
- US Central Command has not struck Iran for two straight nights. A Defense Department source told CNN on July 25 that operations are "on a hold."
- Polymarket puts an effective ceasefire at 75% by August 31, but gives Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 just 1%.
- Brent fell 3.9% Friday to $96.78, a day after its first close above $100 since May 22. Both oil contracts kept sliding through the weekend.
- Tokenized stock perps ran all weekend. At 6 p.m. ET Sunday, Nebius (NBIS) was up 2.3% and Micron (MU) 1.4%, with both oil contracts lower. The Fed decides Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
US Central Command went a second straight night without striking Iran, according to a July 26 conflict tracker update. The 13-night run of strikes ended on July 23.
A Defense Department source told CNN on July 25 that operations are "on a hold." That's the most direct official description of the pause so far.
President Donald Trump said Friday that the two sides are talking. "I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason, but we are talking to them right now," he said. "I think they are being by far the most serious that we've seen. But that doesn't mean we get there." Asked who was handling the discussions, Trump said "sorta everybody," naming Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
An Iranian official dismissed those comments and called the war "one that will not end."
Iran said on July 23 that it was suspending offensive operations. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal the same day, carried by Iraqi prime minister Ali al-Zaidi. So there's a pause in the fighting without an agreement behind it.
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets price the pause as real but not yet settled.
| Polymarket contract | Odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran effective ceasefire by Aug 14 | 64% | $4 million |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire by Aug 31 | 75% | $4 million |
| US announces halt in offensive operations by Aug 15 | 67% | $1 million |
| US announces halt in offensive operations by Aug 31 | 80% | $1 million |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 | 1% | $21 million |
The Hormuz line is the one to sit with. The biggest pool of money on the board, $21 million, says shipping doesn't go back to normal this month even if the shooting stops.
Oil is where this shows up first
Brent crude closed at $100.69 on July 23, its first close above $100 since May 22, after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. It fell 3.9 percent on Friday to $96.78. For the week it was still up close to 10 percent.
Friday's move showed up across the energy complex and in volatility.
| Fund | Friday close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | $136.66 | -2.0% |
| United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) | $52.56 | -1.7% |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) | $59.61 | +0.4% |
| VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) | $391.64 | +2.3% |
| ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY) | $21.46 | -1.5% |
Why an oil move matters to chip stocks
Semiconductors don't buy much crude. The link runs through rates. CoinDesk reported that higher oil prices and new tariff policies raised inflation expectations last week, pushing Treasury yields up and pulling institutional money out of risk assets. Long duration growth stocks are the most exposed to that move, and AI infrastructure is the longest duration trade in the market.
That was part of what hit the group on Friday, alongside the AI spending worry that started with Alphabet and Tesla on Thursday.
| Stock | Friday close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nebius (NBIS) | $187.76 | -15.0% |
| SanDisk (SNDK) | $1,434.87 | -10.9% |
| SK Hynix (SKHY) | $154.58 | -8.8% |
| Micron (MU) | $920.16 | -7.1% |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) | $561.13 | -3.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $738.85 | +0.1% |
The index closed higher on a day the chip names fell that hard. Memory has been the most volatile corner of the group all month.
Stocks traded all weekend, just not on an exchange
US equity markets were shut from Friday afternoon. Index futures reopened Sunday at 6 p.m. ET and the overnight equity session at 8 p.m. ET.
The tokenized stock market never closed. Those perpetual futures run around the clock on Hyperliquid, where real world assets now out-trade crypto. They track a share price rather than conferring ownership of the share, and they carry their own basis to the underlying, so they aren't a substitute for a quote. They are a live read on direction when nothing else is open.
By 6:03 PM ET Sunday, the AI names were bid, and oil was falling.
| Contract | Mark | 24h | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius (NBIS) | $196.95 | +2.30% | $3.6M |
| DRAM index | $55.19 | +1.88% | $23.1M |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | $73.81 | +1.45% | $0.2M |
| Intel (INTC) | $94.52 | +1.57% | $6.9M |
| SK Hynix (SKHY) | $161.45 | +1.48% | $11.9M |
| AMD | $536.38 | +1.37% | $2.3M |
| Micron (MU) | $943.40 | +1.39% | $37.2M |
| SanDisk (SNDK) | $1,462.30 | +1.23% | $22.6M |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $208.65 | +0.37% | $4.8M |
| WTI crude | $84.38 | -3.31% | $175.8M |
| Brent crude | $86.93 | -3.61% | $107.5M |
Breadth ran 75 up and 28 down across 103 markets. The venue's Nasdaq 100 proxy rose 0.79 percent and its S&P 500 proxy 0.49 percent. Every megacap was higher.
The two heaviest contracts on the whole venue were crude oil, and both were down. That is the pause being priced with real money rather than described in a headline.
One caveat on the oil lines. Hyperliquid's Brent contract printed $86.93 against an ICE front-month close of $96.78, so the level tracks a different reference. The direction is the useful part, not the price.
Bitcoin traded near $65,000 on Sunday evening, up about 1.3 percent from where it sat at Friday's 5 p.m. ET settle, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 27.
The week ahead
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29. It's widely expected to hold. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) report after that afternoon's close, then Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday alongside second quarter GDP. Those four are about 17 percent of the S&P 500 by market value. SK Hynix reports Wednesday as well.
If the pause holds, the oil and yield pressure that hit long duration stocks last week comes off at the same time as those reports land. If it breaks, the Hormuz contract suggests shipping stays disrupted either way.
Sources
- GlobalSecurity.org, Iran War 2026, Day 149 Update, 26 July 2026
- CNN, US military does not announce new Iran strikes for first time in 2 weeks, July 25, 2026
- Polymarket, Iran ceasefire prediction markets and live odds
- Yahoo Finance, front-month Brent futures (BZ=F) daily closes, used for the chart and all Brent figures
- CoinDesk, Risk-off wave drags bitcoin lower as the AI selloff spreads from stocks to crypto
Equity and fund prices are Friday, July 24, 2026 closes. Prediction market odds and the bitcoin price are as of Sunday, July 26. Nothing here is investment advice.
