Key points
- Nasdaq futures are up about 0.6% and S&P 500 futures are up around 0.2% Sunday night.
- Kospi opened down 2.6% in Seoul, fell as much as 4.5% intraday, then clawed back to down close to 1% by late morning — it later gave that back too (see update above).
- We are still 13 hours from the opening bell on Wall Street. A lot can change between now and 9:30 a.m.
Update, July 20, 2026: Kospi did not hold. It gave back the bounce described below and closed down 4.46% at 6,516.27, its worst one-month stretch among 46 major economies. Full story: Kospi's worst one-month drop among 46 major economies.
I checked my phone Sunday night and saw green. Nasdaq futures up. S&P futures up. Then I looked at Korea and saw the Kospi had opened down about 2.6%, tumbled further to nearly 4.5% down, before bolting back to roughly flat. So which one is real? Honestly, neither tells us much yet. But let's look anyway.
What we actually know right now
Nasdaq futures are up about 0.6%. S&P 500 futures are up around 0.2%. Dow futures are basically flat, right around break even. Nothing dramatic, just a calm, steady grind higher through Sunday night.
Korea already opened and gave us the wildest data point of the night. The Kospi opened at 6,643, dropped to 6,515, then rallied all the way to 6,811 before settling back down to about 6,750, down close to 1% as of 8:35 p.m. ET. Samsung and SK Hynix both did their own version of that same round trip.
Here's the part I want to be honest about. That is basically the only live read we have on the entire world right now. Tokyo is closed today for a Japanese holiday, so there's no fresh Nikkei number at all. Hong Kong hasn't opened yet. So when people say "Asia is up" or "Asia is down" tonight, they are mostly talking about one country's stock market having a wild morning, not some grand global signal.
Why I'm not ready to call this one
A calm futures market on a Sunday night with almost nobody trading does not tell you much about Monday afternoon. A few things could flip this fast.
Oil is still sitting above $83 a barrel with fighting continuing around the Strait of Hormuz. That kind of headline can hit futures the second it breaks, any hour of the night.
This is also one of the heaviest earnings weeks of the summer. Alphabet and Tesla report Wednesday. Intel and Nokia report Thursday. None of that hits tonight, but it's the backdrop every trader is bracing for, and it can make a calm Sunday night feel pointless by Wednesday afternoon.
And Korea's own pattern this month has been strength in the morning fading by the close, mostly from how the single stock leveraged funds trade there. If that shows up again today, a green Kospi morning could easily end up red by its own 3:30 p.m. close, hours before New York even opens.
What I'm actually watching
Three things between now and the opening bell. Does the Kospi hold anywhere near flat into its own close, or does it fade like it has in most sessions this month. Does oil stay under $85, which matters more for the inflation story than people are pricing in right now. And do Nasdaq futures still look like this at 8:30 tomorrow morning, an hour before the real open, when actual volume shows up instead of a quiet Sunday night tape.
My honest read? I like seeing green more than red, but I have watched enough overnight setups evaporate by breakfast to not get excited about a calm Sunday session. We'll check back once there's real volume behind the number.
This is general commentary based on data available Sunday night, July 19, 2026, and is not investment advice. Prices can and will change well before Monday's opening bell.
